The world's largest economies by 2050: Saudi Arabia's nuclear programme
Saudi Arabia plans up to 16 nuclear reactors worth more than $100 billion under Vision 2030, following the example of Türkiye, Egypt, Iran and the UAE.
“The world’s largest economies by 2050” (Saudi Arabia’s nuclear programme)
Under the Saudi Vision 2030 strategy, Saudi Arabia has serious plans to develop nuclear power in the country, and the industry is recognised as one of the key factors behind its future prosperity. The kingdom intends to build up to 16 reactors with a combined capacity of 17.6 GW on its territory, at a total capital cost of more than $100 billion. According to Abdelghani Malibari, coordinator of scientific cooperation at Saudi Arabia’s Atomic Energy Research Centre, one reactor is estimated to cost about $7 billion. The kingdom plans to cover almost 20% of its domestic electricity demand with power from the new plants within 15–17 years: the first two reactors would come online in ten years, after which two more would be commissioned each following year.
“The world’s largest economies by 2050” (Saudi Arabia’s nuclear programme)
With the rise of Mohammed bin Salman (crown prince since 2017 and son of the reigning king, Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud), the country set itself far-reaching plans to develop nuclear power and to commit enormous resources to them. The Saudi Arabia Vision 2030 strategy was drawn up under the crown prince’s direction and is a comprehensive social, cultural, political and economic plan that commits the kingdom to entering a post-oil era.
“The world’s largest economies by 2050” (Saudi Arabia’s nuclear programme)
Mohammed bin Salman’s remarks about a country that has set itself great goals are of particular interest: “I think the Middle East will become the next Europe. Saudi Arabia will be a completely different country within five years. Bahrain will be completely different. Kuwait and Qatar too, despite all our disagreements. They have strong economies and will be completely different in five years. The UAE, Lebanon, Oman, Jordan, Egypt, Iraq — they have enormous potential. If we succeed, many countries will follow us, and within 30 years there will be an Arab renaissance. This is Saudi Arabia’s war, it is my war, which I take personally and do not intend to die in until the Middle East becomes a world leader. And I am 100% certain that we will succeed.”
“The world’s largest economies by 2050” (Saudi Arabia’s nuclear programme)
In more detail, Saudi Arabia’s nuclear programme, under the National Project approved in 2017, provides for large and small nuclear reactors to generate electricity and to desalinate seawater. As part of the plan, a nuclear and radiological regulatory commission was established, and in 2022 the national nuclear company Saudi Nuclear Energy Holding Company began operations. According to Rafael Grossi, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Saudi Arabia is on the verge of launching its first research reactor, built by the Argentine company Invap. The reactor is intended for research into nuclear energy technology and for training local nuclear engineers and physicists.
“The world’s largest economies by 2050” (Saudi Arabia’s nuclear programme)
Saudi Arabia is of course following the example of Türkiye, Egypt, Iran and the UAE. Those countries’ plants deserve a closer look, since they too are concentrating on nuclear power. In Türkiye, the state corporation Rosatom is building the Akkuyu plant on a build-own-operate basis. Akkuyu consists of four units with VVER-1200 pressurised water reactors and a total design capacity of 4,800 MW, scheduled for commissioning in 2025.
“The world’s largest economies by 2050” (Saudi Arabia’s nuclear programme)
In Egypt, Rosatom is also building the country’s first nuclear plant, El Dabaa, with the same design capacity of 4,800 MW and four VVER-1200 reactors as in Türkiye, near El Alamein (the town is also known for the 1942 battle in the Second World War, when the Eighth Army under the British general Montgomery defeated the German and Italian forces, a victory that led to the liberation of all North Africa), about 300 km north-west of Cairo. El Dabaa is due to be commissioned in 2026.
“The world’s largest economies by 2050” (Saudi Arabia’s nuclear programme)
Iran’s nuclear power is represented by the well-known Bushehr plant, the first in Iran and in the entire Middle East, with a design capacity of 1,000 MW at present. Construction of the plant was begun in 1975 by the German concern Kraftwerk Union (a joint venture of Siemens AG and AEG-Telefunken; the contract was then worth about $4–6 billion). In 1979 the Islamic Revolution began in Iran, after which the government of West Germany joined US sanctions against Iran and construction stopped. According to open sources, when work was suspended the first unit was 85% complete and the second 50%. Under the agreement on cooperation in the peaceful use of atomic energy signed between Russia and Iran, a contract was concluded in 1995 for Rosatom to complete the first unit of Bushehr with a VVER-1000 reactor, which reached full design capacity in 2012. Rosatom is now building the plant’s second stage — units No. 2 and No. 3 with VVER-1000 reactors and a combined capacity of 2,100 MW — under the Bushehr-2 project. Bushehr-2 (two units) is estimated to cost $10 billion. Unit 2 is to be completed in 2025 and unit 3 in 2027.
“The world’s largest economies by 2050” (Saudi Arabia’s nuclear programme)
In addition, Mohammad Eslami, head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI), said that in October 2023 Iran began building the new Karun plant, with a design capacity of 300 MW, on the banks of the Karun river in the south-western province of Khuzestan. Under the Iranian authorities’ plans, nuclear power’s share of electricity generation is to rise to 20,000 MW (20 GW). Consider that Uzbekistan’s total capacity today allows it to generate 13–15 GW per hour, while Iran seeks to raise the nuclear share alone to 20 GW per hour of the country’s total electricity generation. Truly grand plans. It is clear that the Iranian authorities see the construction of new nuclear plants as a serious foundation for developing the country’s scientific and technical potential and its economy.
“The world’s largest economies by 2050” (Saudi Arabia’s nuclear programme)
According to open sources, Iran has begun building the Karun plant on its own; apart from the IR-40 research reactor, it is entirely designed and based on domestic technology. The Karun project’s history began much as Bushehr’s did. It was originally to be built by the French company Framatome, but France withdrew from its construction obligations after the 1979 Islamic Revolution. According to AEOI head Eslami, building Karun will allow Iran to make up a 50-year lag in nuclear power generation. Iran plans to build five plants by 2041 (only one unit, at Bushehr, is currently in operation).
“The world’s largest economies by 2050” (Saudi Arabia’s nuclear programme)
The Barakah plant is the UAE’s first and only nuclear power station, on the Persian Gulf coast in the west of the country, 250 km from Abu Dhabi. Barakah consists of four units with APR-1400 PWR reactors and a combined capacity of 5,600 MW (5.6 GW); the last unit was commissioned on 5 September 2024, according to open sources. The plant was built by the Korean company KEPCO to an American design similar to that of the largest US nuclear plant, Palo Verde (the largest plant in operation, with a combined capacity of 4,200 MW and three units, in Arizona; it supplies electricity to 4 million people, is second in installed capacity in the US after the Grand Coulee Dam and first in annual generation among US power plants of any kind). According to Bloomberg, Barakah’s initial cost was $20 billion, later rising to $25 billion. Barakah’s reactors are third-generation and are inferior to the generation 3+ reactors at El Dabaa, which Rosatom is building in Egypt. Full commissioning of El Dabaa by 2028 will make Egypt the only country in the Middle East with generation 3+ reactors.