Some key takeaways from the BRICS summit in Kazan

The 16th BRICS summit took place in Kazan from 22 to 24 October this year, under Russia’s chairmanship. It should be understood that the BRICS countries — China, Russia, India, Brazil, South Africa, Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia and the UAE — are a “club of interests” that stands for a different concept of world order and interests, an alternative path to the Western concept of global dominance. Within BRICS there are many contradictions between member states at the regional and global levels, but all of them understand that the old global order is collapsing along with the dominance of the dollar, and that the world will break up into macroeconomic and geopolitical zones with their own currency systems.

And it seems to me that the United States is partly interested in the break-up of this global dollar currency system, since China has come to gain more from it than the US has while remaining inside that system. Some US elites want to reach an agreement with Russia on Ukraine — we may see this after the presidential election in November this year. According to some reports, the US wants to leave the Middle East by 2030, taking that time to fix its domestic problems, and to concentrate entirely on the great battle against China for the Asia-Pacific region, including Southeast Asia, by 2027–2028. Southeast Asia is a fast-growing region where the world’s main capital and resources are flowing.

As for the economic side of BRICS, the group accounts for 36% of world GDP (PPP) and 45% of the world’s population, or about 3.6 billion people. According to Boston Consulting Group (BCG), trade intensity within BRICS is rising every year. This shows the substantial growth in Russia’s trade with China and India after Western sanctions were imposed. The French central bank reports that in 2023 Russia increased its trade turnover with China and India to $305 billion, while with Brazil and South Africa it was only $13 billion. The expanded BRICS accounts for 25% of global exports — only 15% of that figure (or 3.7%) is deliveries to other BRICS countries, while 85% (21.1%) is exports to the rest of the world.

No new members were admitted at this summit. The last countries to join BRICS, on 1 January 2024, were Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia and the UAE. Saudi Arabia declined to join, sending the Kingdom’s foreign minister instead. Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud did not come to the summit. China and India stressed the importance of the “green agenda” and the development of a “green economy”, and of tackling climate change. China said it intends to open ten centres in BRICS countries to promote a digital education plan.

It became clear at the summit that there will be no single BRICS currency. Vladimir Putin, speaking with the head of the BRICS New Development Bank and former Brazilian president Dilma Rousseff, said that using local currencies instead of the dollar or euro “will help keep economic development free of politics, as far as that is possible in the context of today’s world”. Iran’s president, Masoud Pezeshkian, who attended the BRICS summit, also stressed that BRICS had confirmed its leadership role on an alternative path. He called for electronic platforms for trade within the group based on settlements in national currencies. It is clear that there will be no single BRICS currency, because the global order is breaking up into macro zones and each macro zone will have its own currency. China is building its macro zone in Southeast Asia, India is building its own as a subcontinent of 1.7 billion people (including Bangladesh). The United States will also have its own macro zone.

Some key takeaways from the BRICS summit in Kazan

India rejected Türkiye’s application for BRICS membership at the summit, according to Berliner Zeitung. US influence over India is strong, because American investment is flowing into India. India has an interest in the American market. Kanwal Sibal, a former Indian foreign minister and former ambassador to Russia, says: “For us the US is the most important partner for growth and access to technology. We do not want BRICS to become the centre of a conflict with the West. As long as we are in BRICS, we would like to work on a positive agenda of cooperation rather than confrontation. Otherwise BRICS will move in an anti-Western direction.” Brazil apparently has the same interests. The American market matters to Brazil too, which is why Venezuela has not been admitted to BRICS to this day — so that the group does not become anti-Western.

China and India have difficult relations and an unresolved territorial dispute over their Himalayan border. They are direct competitors at the regional level. The US is also betting on India in the US–China confrontation. Every country has its own interests and contradictions! Relations between Iran and the Arab states are uneasy as well. Jim O’Neill, an economist at the American global bank Goldman Sachs, says of this: “It is good for the West that China and India will never be able to agree on anything. Because if those two could, the BRICS countries would gain enormous influence.”

The most important outcome of the BRICS summit is that Russian President Vladimir Putin said at a meeting with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian that Russia and Iran would soon sign a comprehensive strategic partnership treaty. Most likely it will be signed after the BRICS summit. The Iranian president is in Russia for that purpose. This treaty will be a key step in the history and development of Russian–Iranian relations, covering cooperation in energy, transport, industry, agriculture and, very importantly, science, technology and defence. A serious geopolitical victory for Russia and Iran, frankly! It means that Russia and Iran have begun to form their own macro zone in Eurasia (with two bases) by building the North–South ITC (see my earlier piece on the North–South ITC and its significance). Russia and Iran are among the most important countries of the Heartland (the heart of the Earth), the centre of the World Island (Eurasia) in Mackinder’s “Geographical Pivot of History” concept. Russia lies at the centre of the Heartland and Iran to its south (I looked at the main points of Mackinder’s Heartland concept in earlier pieces; you can read them).