Record-low birth rates in the West and Japan
Birth rates have fallen to record lows across the West and Japan. In 2023 the EU recorded 3.665 million births, the fewest since records began in 1961, and the figure was down 5.5% on the year before.
Birth rates in the West and Japan have fallen to record lows.
The total fertility rate is the average number of children each woman has over her lifetime. Where mortality is low, a total fertility rate of at least 2.1 children per woman is needed for a population to replace itself.
The European Union’s statistical service had forecast 4 million births, but 3.665 million were recorded in 2023 — the lowest since data collection began in 1961. The figure was also down 5.5% on 2022, the sharpest year-on-year fall in the history of the records.
Europe’s difficult economic situation is, of course, weighing on the region’s birth rate. Household costs are rising with high inflation and a higher cost of living, driven in part by expensive energy.
The decline in the number of children is most pronounced in Italy, Spain, Greece, Poland, Finland and the Baltic states, where birth rates have fallen by at least a quarter over the past decade.
The EU’s birth-rate peak came in the mid-1960s; the rate has since fallen sharply and now stands at roughly the same level as in the United States. It should be understood that low fertility will increase the burden on the state budget: the working-age population will shrink, while spending on the social system, including health care and pensions, will grow.