Japan's electricity generation

Japan’s electricity generation

According to energy data from the US Department of Energy (which holds the broadest data on world energy and forecasts of the main trends in the industry) and from Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Japan’s electricity generation rests mainly on renewables and nuclear power. The share of renewables is to rise to 38% of total generation, and that of nuclear plants to 20%, by 2030. The shares of coal and gas are to fall from 31% to 19% and from 34% to 20% respectively. The chart also shows that Japan’s total electricity generation has barely changed since 2010; it is in fact falling gradually. That reflects the poor shape of the Japanese economy, which is in effect shrinking, contrary to the country’s official statistics showing GDP growth of around 1% in recent years. On the laws of political economy, growth in electricity generation always goes hand in hand with a country’s industrial growth.

Japan’s energy generation

As for Japan’s energy policy, the Sixth Energy Plan, adopted in 2021, and the Green Growth Strategy envisage:

a 46% cut in greenhouse-gas emissions from 2013 levels, with the possibility of raising that figure to 50% by 2030; every branch of Japanese industry is to help reduce CO2 emissions in the course of its operations;
carbon neutrality for the main energy-intensive industries (metallurgy, chemicals, pulp and paper, cement and so on) by 2050, though it is not yet clear how they intend to achieve this in energy-intensive sectors;
non-fossil sources to reach 60% of electricity generation: 36-38% renewables, 20-22% nuclear, and about 1% from hydrogen and ammonia. The plan provides for doubling renewable generation by 2030, to 330-350 billion kWh against 186.3 billion in 2019. Fossil-fuel generation is to consist of 20% liquefied natural gas (LNG), 19% coal and 2% liquid hydrocarbons, while biomass generation is to rise to 8 GW;
a reduction by 2030 in the production of primary energy sources. Electricity generation is to fall to 930-940 billion kWh from 1,024 billion kWh in 2019. The previous plan envisaged growth to 1,065 billion kWh by 2030. The impression is that the Japanese authorities already know electricity consumption will fall, and are therefore setting targets that assume such a decline. On the other hand, how can electricity generation be reduced if the “green growth” strategy includes a ban from 2035 on the sale of cars with internal-combustion engines in favour of electric and hybrid vehicles? Electric cars and electric trucks of up to 8 tonnes need a great deal of electricity as fuel. Still, I find it hard to believe that by 2035 Japan will be able to abandon internal-combustion cars entirely, since tens of thousands of small and medium-sized suppliers make components for the big carmakers, and each car has around 5,000 parts;
the productive use of carbon emissions (CO2) as industrial feedstock or synthetic fuel (carbon-free fuel produced by synthesising CO2 and hydrogen), as well as direct capture of CO2 from the atmosphere;
an increase in the share of Japan’s own production (through Japanese companies taking equity stakes in overseas projects) in total oil and gas imports to 50% by 2030 and to 60% by 2040. This reflects the Japanese government’s recognition of the long-term importance of oil and gas within Japan’s energy strategy. The provision is intended to safeguard the country’s energy security.

Japan’s energy generation

The Sixth Energy Plan also sets the government the following tasks in the fuel and energy sector and the economy:

the emphasis is on renewables, mainly wind power: wind turbines, including floating ones, and their components are to be developed and deployed. Japan is managing this task;
the use of fuel ammonia as a transitional fuel on the way to a hydrogen economy;
as for hydrogen itself, the tasks are to develop and deploy hydrogen turbines in power generation, hydrogen-based iron reduction, hydrogen-powered cargo ships and electrolysers;
in nuclear power, the tasks are to develop and deploy small modular reactors and to use nuclear plants to produce hydrogen.

Japan’s electricity generation

Trade between Japan and Russia amounts to about $20 billion. It consists of Russian hydrocarbon supplies (oil, LNG and coal) to Japan and Japanese high-value-added technology and equipment to Russia. A substantial fall in the shares of coal and gas in Japan’s total electricity generation by 2030, as set out in its Sixth Energy Plan, will in time hurt Russian oil, LNG and coal supplies to Japan. But the blow to Russia will be small given the modest size of the two countries’ trade. Russia’s trade with China came to almost $250 billion in 2023. Russia can redirect those flows to the markets of South-East Asia, India and China, which will grow much faster than the old markets of Europe and Japan.

Nuclear power in Japan

As for nuclear power, under the Sixth Energy Plan Japan began in December 2022 to extend the service life of its reactors, replace old ones and build new ones. Reactor lifetimes were extended from 40 years to 60 years. After the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant on 11 March 2011, caused by the strongest earthquake in Japan’s history and the tsunami that followed, the country planned to abandon nuclear power altogether. Japan has now reversed that decision because of global disruptions to energy supplies, a sharp rise in domestic electricity prices and the need for energy security.

Japan’s nuclear power

The chart above shows the status of Japan’s nuclear reactor fleet. According to it, Japan has already restarted 12 reactors and plans to restart another 5 within the next 2-3 years. Another 10 are undergoing inspections. Japan is also building 2 new reactors, plans to build 8 new small nuclear plants in the coming years, and has shut down 8 old reactors as unfit for service. Yet even after these measures Japan will not reach the 30% share of nuclear generation in total electricity output by 2030 that it had before the Fukushima Daiichi accident.