IMF forecasts the end of the conflict in Ukraine in 2026
The IMF's updated review of the Ukrainian economy suggests the conflict could end in mid-2026, with the debt-to-GDP ratio possibly approaching 300% by 2029 under its negative scenario.
IMF forecasts the end of the conflict in Ukraine in 2026
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has updated its review of the Ukrainian economy, which also contains a forecast for how long the conflict will last. Last year, a continuation of the conflict until the end of 2025 was assumed only under the negative scenario; in the new forecast it is already the baseline scenario.
Under this year’s negative scenario, the fund expects the conflict to end in mid-2026. By the IMF’s estimate, more than 10.3 million people remain displaced, either within the country or as refugees. The fund also projects that Ukraine’s debt-to-GDP ratio could exceed 100% next year and, under the negative scenario, climb to almost 300% by 2029.
The IMF urged the Ukrainian authorities to support the fund-backed package of tax measures, and called on the G7 countries to provide Kyiv with stable multi-year financing of $50 billion through “extraordinary loans”.