Global lithium reserves

According to the United States Geological Survey (USGS), identified lithium resources worldwide grew substantially in 2023, to around 98 million tonnes. A further 26 million tonnes of lithium has already been extracted from deposits and is stored around the world. Bolivia’s lithium resources are at present estimated at 21 million tonnes, or 21.4% of world reserves of the metal. The second Latin American country with the world’s largest lithium reserves is Argentina, with confirmed reserves of 20 million tonnes. Bolivia, Argentina and Chile (11 million tonnes) make up Latin America’s “lithium triangle”, which holds 53% of the world’s proven lithium. The United States (12 million tonnes), Australia (7.9 million tonnes) and China (6.8 million tonnes) also have significant lithium reserves. Russia has reserves of 1 million tonnes.

According to Investing.com, moreover, citing the findings of the American company Lithium Americas (which operates the Thacker Pass lithium mine in the southern part of the McDermitt caldera), the world’s largest lithium deposit has been found inside the ancient McDermitt supervolcano on the border between Nevada and Oregon in the United States, with reserves estimated at 20 to 40 million tonnes of lithium. These McDermitt reserves, however, still have to be finally confirmed — and it remains to be seen whether mining them would be profitable. According to the director-general of the Geological Survey Office of Iran’s Ministry of Industry, Iran’s first lithium deposit has been discovered, with reserves estimated at 8.5 million tonnes. In February 2023 India announced the discovery of the country’s largest lithium deposit, with reserves of 5.9 million tonnes found in the states of Jammu and Kashmir. India depends on Australia and Argentina, importing up to 80% of the lithium it uses.

Demand for lithium, which is used to make lithium-ion batteries, has grown in recent years thanks to rising production of electric vehicles, its use in solar panels (renewables) and in backup power systems for mobile-phone masts in the expanding telecommunications industry, and its use in other devices and installations. According to the International Lithium Association, demand for lithium will rise sixfold between 2021 and 2040, driven by growing interest in electric cars and renewable technologies. In Europe, transport-related carbon dioxide emissions are to be cut by 15% by 2025 and by 37.5% by 2030 from today’s level.

In 2022 the main lithium producers were Australia, Chile and China, which together produced 119,000 tonnes, or 91.2% of the world’s lithium — 61,000, 39,000 and 19,000 tonnes respectively. Global production (excluding the United States) was 130,000 tonnes. China, the third-largest producer, not only mines lithium at home but also holds lithium assets in Chile, Canada and Australia.

The global lithium market is largely divided between American, Chinese and Australian producers. According to Yahoo Finance, the ten largest lithium producers are Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile SA (Chile, the largest producer), Albemarle Corporation (United States, second), Jiangxi Ganfeng Lithium Co. Ltd (China, third), Tianqi Lithium (China, fourth), Pilbara Minerals (Australia, fifth), Mineral Resources Limited (Australia, sixth), Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co. Ltd (China, seventh), Allkem (Australia, eighth), Livent Corporation (United States, ninth) and Lithium Americas Corp. (Canada, tenth).

Global lithium reserves

Although the US Geological Survey puts the world’s proven lithium reserves at 98 million tonnes, not all of them can be economically developed — only 26.05 million tonnes. Bolivia’s lithium reserves, for example, are considered uneconomic to extract, according to open sources, because of limited access, insufficient technological capacity, a lack of finance and conflict with indigenous communities over land (as reported in the media, although China and Russia are already entering Bolivia with their own projects). Bolivia therefore does not yet appear on this list. Argentina has economically viable and efficient lithium reserves of 2.7 million tonnes out of 20 million tonnes proven. At the end of 2023 the largest effective lithium reserves were in Chile and Australia — 9.3 million and 6.2 million tonnes respectively. China accounts for 2 million tonnes and the United States 1 million tonnes.

China is moving ahead of the game: Chinese companies already own several lithium deposits in Zimbabwe, Mali, the DR Congo and Ethiopia. China holds 51% of the world’s largest lithium mine in Australia; the remaining 49% belongs to the United States. China is also seeking to invest more than $1 billion in lithium projects in Bolivia.

Russia does not yet mine lithium. It is currently developing its Polmostundrovskoye and Kolmozerskoye lithium deposits. The Kolmozerskoye deposit is estimated to hold up to 75 million tonnes of lithium ore. Russia aims to be fully self-sufficient in lithium by 2030. In addition, the Russian state corporation Rosatom is investing $600 million in lithium development in Bolivia. Rosatom may launch the first phase of an industrial complex in 2025 and reach planned output of 25,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate a year by 2027, or about 6% of world production. The cost of producing lithium from Bolivian brines is estimated at $4,000 per tonne, far more favourable than mining ore in Russia. Rosatom will need the lithium to make batteries at a plant in Kaliningrad due to open in autumn 2025.

Although new large lithium deposits are discovered around the world every year, some estimates suggest there may not be enough to meet future demand for batteries as electric vehicle and other electric device production grows, given that the process is labour-intensive and expensive.

Susan Zou, vice-president of the Norwegian company Rystad Energy, estimates that rising battery production will lead to a deficit from 2028–2030. “For the next couple of years lithium supply may remain sufficient globally, but a regional imbalance is still inevitable. On a global scale, a lithium deficit may emerge closer to the end of this decade, as supply growth is likely to lag behind demand,” she says — which could drive up prices for lithium-ion batteries substantially worldwide.